Biden - Trump -- Again????

I’m surprised to find myself writing this, but I haven’t wanted to vote for a president of the United States since the 2016 election, and it doesn’t appear my view is about to change anytime soon. In ’16, I thought it was Hillary Clinton’s to lose and figured she’d win up until that fatal moment when she castigated half of all President Trump’s supporters as deplorable. She lost my vote with that comment; instead, I voted for the Libertarian.

In 2020, I very reluctantly voted for Trump – and much of that was due to President Biden’s mental acuity, which reminded me all too well of my mother when she was suffering from Alzheimer’s Disease. I don’t believe for a second he’s fit for office. On the other hand, one might say he’s got a decent staff that (mostly) keeps him going.

Given that Trump never figured out how to act presidential, I wasn’t surprised he lost in 2020. As The Wall Street Journal pointed out in an editorial just prior to the election, only Trump could fire Trump and, given his petulance over the course of four years, he did – successfully!

Enter the 2024 election, and my only thought is please, God, spare us another contest between those two.

I’m ever hopeful – I’m allowed to dream, right? – others will want the presidency as much as Biden and Trump do and give them a run for their money during the primaries. On the Republican side, U.S. Senators Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins could make interesting candidates. So could former Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker as well as current Governors Chris Sununu and Brian Kemp. I wonder if former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley can pull off the nomination. She appears to be as much of a longshot as U.S. Sen. Tim Scott.

Given that we’ve heard so much from Florida’s Ron DeSantis, I wouldn’t be surprised if he burns out. If that happens, Murkowski, Collins, Baker or, possibly, Sununu or Kemp could step in. Given Kemp’s two election wins over Stacey Abrams, he could make a very viable candidate.

The Republicans need to moderate their stance on abortion (as Haley has suggested) and push more of an economic agenda with lower taxes. They also need to go heavy on defense and crime. If they can figure out the messaging on those issues, they can probably win the presidency in 2024.

The Democrats need to have a heart to heart with Biden. Forget his politics, his mental health makes him bad for the country. Democratic politicians who should consider running against him for the nomination include U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore. There are likely others.

The Democrats need to modify their stance on abortion, too, put a damper on woke politics, take the southern U.S. border issues seriously, and moderate their views that the government can solve all problems. Like Biden, they need to say that people like Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping are threats.

Alas, I dream!

Book Review: America and The Missing Moderate Voter

If ever an author missed a golden opportunity to explain Donald Trump and the American voter, it might be David Brown, a history professor at Elizabethtown College in Pennsylvania, with his new book, Moderates:  The Vital Center of American Politics, from the Founding to Today.

The title alone makes you think he’s written about voters.  But you soon discover he focused on a few presidents, their moderate views and how that helped them win the White House.  

In a time when people are taking to the streets against Trump, yelling at Congressional representatives during town meetings, or venting anger on social media – in other words, in an era marked by high tension, distrust and vitriol as people attempt to figure out where the United States is headed – this book stands out as a total miss for these turbulent times.

Had he showed how Americans size up issues and candidates as they determine their voting preferences, this book would be a worthwhile read.  Comparing recent American voting habits to the most recent election, it’s hard to believe a candidate as disruptive as Trump will be seen again, from either major political party, and it’s unfortunate he didn’t explore this issue.

Another problem with this book is the history presented about President Carter.  If all you knew about Carter was what you read from Professor Brown, you might think his downfall was due to two challengers from within his own party, Massachusetts Sen. Edward M. Kennedy and California Gov. Jerry Brown.  The U.S. Embassy hostage crisis in Tehran – which made him vulnerable to those challengers and destroyed his presidency – is never mentioned.

The next faux pas Brown makes is to repeat a tired criticism of the Republican Party – that unless it includes more minorities and women in its ranks, it’s likely to die off, a critique that circulated after former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney failed to knock out Barack Obama from the White House in 2012, something that didn’t matter in 2016.

If there’s any take away from this book it might be that last November’s election was an aberration.  Over the last 40 years, Americans chose presidential candidates not too wedded to their political party.  Presidents Carter, George H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton and Obama are cited as examples.

Indeed, a Gallup Poll, released in January 2016, about political affiliation suggests moderates should continue to win the White House because 42 percent of American voters identify as independents while 29 percent identify as Democrats and 26 percent identify as Republicans.  

If you're going to write about moderates, shouldn't this detail be in the book?  Perhaps the professor should take a class on research.  

“The rise in political independence is likely related to Americans’ frustration with party gridlock in the federal government,” Gallup reported.

But Gallup also pointed out a contradiction:  Sixteen percent of independents lean toward the Democrats and the same percentage leans Republican, giving each party more than 40 percent of all voters, meaning there are far fewer independents out there.  These numbers also provide a warning – politicians, at the national level, cannot stray too far left or too far right. 

They also say there’s not a shred of evidence the Republican Party will implode; that the Democrats will easily waltz back into the White House – because of the Electoral College just might stop them again in 2020 – or that they’ll dominate Congress after next year’s midterm elections because more voters find Democratic Party positions acceptable.  In other words, there are no guarantees about future elections.

The problem with this book is that the author was lazy.  He doesn’t offer a shred of new scholarship nor does he take a chance to explain why Americans tend to prefer moderates at the helm.  Instead, he parrots what others have written.  That said, his conclusion appears accurate:  A successful presidential candidate tends to be a centrist, someone independent voters and the party faithful find suitable.  

But had he done the work a book like this requires -- examining Americans’ tendency to skew a hue of purple instead of bright red or deep blue, checked his history, perhaps even accompanied reporters during last year’s primary and election seasons as they interviewed voters, it would stand out for offering great discovery about the American citizen.  As it stands, however, it isn’t worth the money.

Publishing Information:

Moderates:  The Vital Center of American Politics, From the Founding to Today, by David S. Brown.  Chapel Hill, NC:  The University of North Carolina Press, 2016.  Available at barnesandnoble.com and amazon.com for $34.95

Gallup Poll:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/188096/democratic-republican-identification-near-historical-lows.aspx